- Overall EUR/USD bias remains down
- The projected lower and upper bounds are 1.15 and 1.18 respectively
- The projected closing price on Monday is 1.17
The EUR/USD currency pair managed to reach 1.1600 again on Friday, trimming the losses suffered during the previous week and closing at 1.1683.
The Euro received a boost following reports that as many as 28 EU members now agree on migration issues such as setting up refugee centers and relocating migrants among the EU member nations.
The daily graph technically shows a price that stayed below 1.1720, with the currency pair coming out on top for the week and showing a 23.6% retracement level after the slump in April/May.
The daily chart also shows that the rate settled a couple of pips above the 20-day daily moving average. Technical indicators have recovered but remain inside negative territory. The recovery was not great enough to point to additional price gains in the future, which would be possible if the rate does end up breaking out above the aforementioned static resistance level. This would pave the way for retesting the 38.2% retracement level of the earlier price drop at 1.1855.
On the four-hour chart, the probability of an even higher EUR/USD rate appears stronger, with the currency pair having overcome its 20 and 100 simple moving averages (SMAs) and closing only a couple of pips below the 200 SMA.
The Momentum indicator is above its midline and heading upward. Meanwhile, the RSI is now lingering close to 60.
Below the level of 1.1660, the probabilities of continuing the upward momentum will likely drop, and bears will regain control of the market if the EUR/USD rate breaks downward through 1.1620.
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