- Some ECB policymakers want an earlier interest rate hike
- Strong ZEW data could boost the Euro
- German export data to be published today
The most crucial event for the Euro in the week ahead is likely to be the minutes of the ECB’s meeting, which are scheduled to be released on Thursday.
The minutes could give market participants an idea of when ECB council members are planning an interest rate hike, which normally boost currencies.
Last month’s meeting statement was not overly enthusiastic about increasing rates, which caused the Euro to drop slightly. If the latest minutes indicate a shift in stance and a more positive outlook, the Euro might strengthen.
Although the ECB gave indications that the next interest rate hike might not occur before the end of 2019, it seems that certain ECB decision-makers are unhappy with market pricing and would prefer the next rate increase to come in September or October. This is according to XM Analyst Rafi Bouyadjuidan.
ECB President Mario Draghi has scheduled two public appearances this week, with one later today and another planned for Wednesday morning.
Another very important report is the ZEW business confidence index. This is expected tomorrow morning at 9:00 GMT. This report has often been a leading indicator of what to expect in the European economy, so positive data here might strengthen the Euro.
Later today, Germany will publish its latest export figures, with the market expecting a 0.75% increase and the trade surplus expected to rise to 20bn Euros in May.
Bouyadjuidan added: “German exports have fallen in three out of four months this year, so a positive figure for May would add to the growing evidence that growth picked up towards the end of the second quarter.”